Published on: May 05, 2025
By: BTI
Location: New Delhi, India
In a significant escalation of diplomatic and strategic measures, India has reportedly stopped the flow of water from the Chenab River to Pakistan, effectively suspending the long-standing Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) of 1960. This move, executed through the closure of the Baglihar Dam’s sluice gates, follows the deadly Pahalgam terror attack on April 22, 2025, which claimed 26 lives, mostly tourists. India has attributed the attack to Pakistan-based militant groups, prompting a series of retaliatory actions, including this unprecedented restriction of water flow.
Background and Context
The Indus Waters Treaty, brokered by the World Bank, allocates the waters of the Indus River system between India and Pakistan, with Pakistan receiving the majority of the flow from the western rivers—Indus, Chenab, and Jhelum. The treaty has been a cornerstone of water-sharing cooperation despite decades of hostility between the two nations. However, India’s decision to suspend the treaty and curb water flow through the Baglihar Dam on the Chenab River marks a dramatic shift, triggered by the Pahalgam attack, which New Delhi claims was supported by Islamabad—a charge Pakistan vehemently denies.
According to reports, the Indian government has lowered the gates of the Baglihar Dam’s spillways, reducing the Chenab’s flow to Pakistan’s Punjab region, a critical agricultural hub. This action is described as a “short-term punitive measure” aimed at pressuring Pakistan. Plans are also underway to implement similar restrictions at the Kishanganga Dam on the Jhelum River.
Pakistan’s Response
Pakistan has reacted strongly, labeling India’s actions as an “act of war.” Pakistan’s Defence Minister Khawaja Asif warned that any structures built by India to divert water would be destroyed, while former Foreign Minister Bilawal Bhutto-Zardari stated, “Either our water or their blood will flow.” Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif has urged the United States to intervene, emphasizing that the IWT does not permit unilateral withdrawal.
Satellite imagery and official data accessed by India Today’s OSINT team indicate that, as of April 30, the western rivers continued to flow normally. However, recent reports confirm a significant reduction in the Chenab’s water levels, with visuals showing the river reduced to a trickle in some areas. This has sparked fears of an impending water crisis in Pakistan, where 80% of agricultural land depends on the Indus system.
Strategic and Humanitarian Implications
India’s decision to weaponize water has raised alarms both domestically and internationally. The Chenab River is vital for Pakistan’s agrarian economy, and a prolonged disruption could lead to severe water shortages, threatening food security and livelihoods. Social media posts on X reflect polarized sentiments, with some Indian users hailing the move as a justified response to terrorism, while others, including Pakistani voices, warn of catastrophic consequences.
Critics argue that this move could destabilize the region further. The Financial Times reported Pakistan’s warning that interrupting water flow constitutes an act of aggression, while The Economist noted that the suspension of the IWT could have “long-term, serious consequences” for Pakistan. Indian analysts, however, point out that India lacks sufficient storage infrastructure to completely halt water flow, suggesting the current restriction is symbolic yet impactful.
Former Indian diplomat Ajay Bisaria emphasized the strategic intent behind the move, stating that India’s actions aim to hurt Pakistan economically without triggering direct military conflict. However, Pakistan’s military has responded with full-scale drills near the Line of Control (LoC), deploying Chinese-made SH-15 howitzers and air defense systems, signaling heightened combat readiness.
International Reactions
The United States, through Secretary of State Marco Rubio, has urged both nations to de-escalate, expressing support for India’s anti-terrorism stance while calling for Pakistan’s cooperation in investigating the Pahalgam attack. China, a close ally of Pakistan, has implicitly backed Islamabad, with analysts in Beijing criticizing India’s actions as destabilizing.
The suspension of the IWT also raises questions about India’s water-sharing agreements with Nepal and Bangladesh, potentially straining regional cooperation. The Deccan Herald warned that “weaponizing” the treaty could be a strategic misstep with broader diplomatic repercussions.
Domestic Perspectives
In India, Union Jal Shakti Minister C.R. Patel’s claim that “not even a drop of water from the Indus will go to Pakistan” has fueled nationalist sentiment. However, National Conference leader Farooq Abdullah cautioned that while India may threaten to cut water, it would not aim to “kill” Pakistan’s people, emphasizing India’s Gandhian principles.
Looking Ahead
The curtailment of Chenab water flow is part of a broader Indian offensive, including banning Pakistani ships from Indian ports, halting imports, and closing the Attari border crossing. These measures, initiated after the Pahalgam attack, signal a hardening of India’s stance against Pakistan.
As tensions soar, the international community watches closely. The absence of explicit provisions in the IWT for unilateral withdrawal complicates India’s legal position, but the treaty’s suspension reflects a willingness to leverage water as a geopolitical tool. Whether this escalates into a broader conflict or prompts diplomatic intervention remains uncertain. For now, the Chenab’s dwindling flow serves as a stark symbol of the deepening rift between India and Pakistan.
